Predictably Unpredictable: Three Lessons about Change Failure for Leaders

I recently read an article in The New York Times about the repeal of a piece of legislation that delayed the start times for Florida high schools. Despite the original bill passing with broad bipartisan support, it was recalled two years later, before the changes took full effect.

What went wrong? Like many change efforts, this case in Florida fell apart in some fairly predictable ways. In this post, I’ll share my views on the lessons this story contains for change leaders, plus some tips to help you ensure a better outcome for your change efforts. 

Lesson 1: The Curse of the Charismatic Leader

The original bill’s sponsor was Paul Renner, a popular politician and the speaker of the State House. Renner became a self-described “sleep evangelist” after reading Matthew Walker’s best-selling book, Why We Sleep, and crafted a compelling case with bipartisan appeal. Delaying high school start times to 8:30 would allow teenagers to get more sleep, a recommendation widely supported by the American Academy of Pediatrics and sleep experts. The law passed easily with Renner’s backing, but as soon as his term ended, the opposition stepped in to undo the measure. 

This is a scenario we often see in organizations: a change effort gains momentum with the energy of one powerful leader, but once that leader leaves or loses influence, the change falters.

It’s the curse of charisma. Charismatic leaders can quickly build momentum for change by leveraging their personal magnetism, but their change efforts can easily be derailed by hidden doubts and latent implementation challenges that emerge during the change process. 

The more well-liked the leader, the less likely people are to openly criticize their ideas. And the quieter the objections, the more likely they are to cause significant problems later on.

Lesson 2: Inadequate Resources Inevitably Produce Resistance

The opposition to the law wasn’t based on the science behind it—almost everyone agreed that later start times would benefit students, and the initial bill had bipartisan support. Instead, the pushback came from the practicalities of implementation. Schools were concerned about the additional costs required to adjust to the new schedule, from hiring more bus drivers to updating athletic fields with lights for evening practices. This is another key insight for anyone leading change: if we don't provide adequate resources and support, even the best-intentioned changes can falter.

In organizations, we often encounter a similar issue. A new initiative or process might sound great on paper, but if we don’t allocate the time, money, or support necessary for successful implementation, we can’t expect people to fully adopt or engage with the change. When resources are scarce or misaligned with the goals of the change, resistance is inevitable.

Lesson 3: The Chaos Phase Is Predictably Unpredictable

While some schools successfully implemented the change, others encountered obstacles and began pushing for its repeal. This process mirrors what happens when we try to implement large changes in any organization. We encounter a phase of chaos: when things are in limbo, the old ways are no longer working, but the new ways aren’t fully established either.

This period of uncertainty is often where change efforts stumble. The key to moving through it successfully is not to minimize the challenges or pretend the chaos isn’t happening. Instead, we need to acknowledge the discomfort and uncertainty that come with change. The role of a change leadership team, whether in schools or businesses, is to stay grounded and help others navigate that turbulent space. By acknowledging and preparing for this chaos, your team will feel reassured and prepared for the challenges ahead.

One powerful way to help others navigate the turbulence of change is to create proactive learning loops—opportunities to share what’s working and amplify helpful patterns across the organization. These learning loops also provide forums to surface systemic challenges, allowing leaders to address them productively. 

3 Key Pieces of Advice for Change Leaders

How might you apply the lessons from this case to you change effort? Start with these three key pieces of advice:

#1: Don’t rely on a single, charismatic champion. Build a diverse change leadership team to lead the change effort.

Charismatic leaders cast a glow over their efforts—and the brighter the light, the deeper the shadows. The solution isn’t for leaders to become less likeable. The solution is to diversify the change leadership to a team representing multiple points of view and stakeholder groups. Because they have access to a wider range of inputs, they can gather a more well-rounded and realistic view of how the change is perceived, and act accordingly. 

#2: Provide adequate resources for the change: time, money, training, and support.

We can’t anticipate every need that will arise during the implementation of a change, but we can reliably predict that some kind of resources will be needed. Discuss with your change leadership team what you’re willing to invest to make the change successful, and allocate these resources in advance. Throughout the change process, continue to evaluate what’s needed for adequate support and make adjustments.

#3: Prepare for the unexpected. Build proactive learning loops into your change plan to harness what’s working and address what isn’t. 

Change almost always produces unexpected consequences. Although we can’t predict the specifics, we can prepare by purposefully leveraging new information as it emerges. Design intentional communication structures with your change leadership team to surface learning and feed it back into your change plan.

Need help putting this into action for your organization? Book a strategy call with me here. We’ll discuss your unique situation and identify clear next steps to help your change effort succeed.